NHO Conference in Lillestrøm: Interest Rate Insights for 2026
Lillestrøm, Nettavisen — As we approach the dawn of 2026, Norway’s key interest rate stands at an imposing 4.0 percent. In stark contrast, Sweden boasts a considerably lower rate of 1.75 percent.
Chief economist Øystein Dørum from NHO has weighed in on this disparity, telling Nettavisen, “This year, we expect just a single interest rate cut.” When pressed for details, he conveyed a calm perspective: “The decrease may not be significant.”
Dørum elaborated on the underlying factors, explaining that Norway’s elevated interest rates are a reflection of various domestic conditions. “We are currently experiencing high capacity utilization, low unemployment, and price growth that far exceeds acceptable levels,” he noted in a video interview.
Time for Adjustment
“The interest rate does need to be lowered; it is above its normal level. However, we must accept that this process will take time,” Dørum stated.
When asked about the influence of global uncertainties on Norway’s economy, he communicated a cautious realism: “Our member companies are exhibiting a mixture of hesitance about their current status and anxiety about future prospects. There is an increased uncertainty regarding both domestic conditions and the global landscape.”
Dørum described the past year as pivotal for the global economy. “2025 marked a significant turning point, particularly with Donald Trump’s re-election, which challenged the United States’ role as a key supporter of a liberal global order.”
He emphasized, “It’s not the USA we once knew.” Dørum expressed concern over the nation’s shifting trade policies, noting, “What began as a trade war with China has expanded to include conflicts with traditional allies.”
Security and Economic Instability
The ramifications of these shifts extend beyond trade, as Dørum cautioned about the implications for security policy. “What is developing in this area is of even greater concern, and it inevitably influences the economy,” he asserted.
As many wonder what 2026 may hold, he offered a nuanced perspective. “Last year brought considerable uncertainty and alarming news, yet many within our borders fared better than expected. Wages outpaced rising prices, loan expenses decreased, and employment figures improved. Similar trends are anticipated for 2026.”
Experts agree that real wages are likely to rise in the coming year. Dørum expressed tempered optimism regarding interest rates and employment: “We project a decrease in interest rates alongside roughly 25,000 new jobs. Still, the landscape is fraught with uncertainties, as history shows that predictions often miss the mark.”
Nevertheless, if predictions hold true, Dørum concluded with a hopeful note: “The Norwegian economy is set to perform well in 2026.”
For further insights, catch the latest discussions on economic trends and the Swedish perspective here.
