It’s been anticipated for some time, but following Thursday’s Europa League matches, the reality has set in: Norway has slipped in UEFA’s coefficient rankings, now sitting behind Denmark at 14th place.
With the season nearing its conclusion, the prospects of Norway making a comeback appear slim. In fact, there looms a sense of urgency as both Bodø/Glimt and Brann must earn points in their remaining fixtures to fend off further declines.
The drop from 11th to 14th place has ramifications that will affect how Norwegian clubs qualify for league competitions moving forward. Bodø/Glimt did gain a coefficient bonus for qualifying for the Champions League, but their points accumulation—alongside disappointing performances from Rosenborg, Fredrikstad, and Viking—has allowed several countries to surpass Norway in the rankings.
### A Diminished Advantage
What does this change from 11th to 14th place truly mean? Fortunately, it won’t alter the number of Norwegian teams qualifying for the Champions League, as Norway would need to fall to 16th for that one guaranteed spot to be reduced.
Last season’s strong 11th-place finish assured the Norwegian cup winner a direct pathway to the playoffs for the Europa League in autumn 2026. This means that Lillestrøm, poised to capture the cup, is just a super cup final away from European competition.
However, it’s crucial to note that should either Viking or Bodø/Glimt win the cup in 2026, there will be no super cup final to offer that potential matchup.
Looking ahead, winning the cup won’t be quite as rewarding come the 2027/28 season. The 2026 cup champion will find themselves in the 3rd qualifying round of the Europa League. A defeat there—followed by an early exit in the Conference League playoffs—would spell the end of their European journey.
Next season, the Eliteserien’s bronze medalist will enter the 2nd qualifying round of the Europa League—but in 2027/28, they’ll drop down to the 2nd qualifying round of the Conference League, as will the 4th place team.
Norway’s performance in European competitions has declined in recent years, peaking at 5,750 ranking points in the 2022/23 season. Currently, Norway stands at 5,400 points, buoyed by the bonus points from Bodø/Glimt. Each league victory contributes 0.400 points, while a draw yields 0.200.
### Future Threats Loom
As it stands, Switzerland, Cyprus, and Austria are closely tailing Norway in the rankings, placing 15th, 16th, and 17th respectively. While significant effort will be needed for these nations to catch up this season, Austria features three teams in contention: RB Salzburg, Sturm Graz, and Rapid Wien. Meanwhile, Switzerland has its own trio—Lausanne, Young Boys, and Basel—each with promising playoff potential.
Although the Swiss teams seem well-positioned to close the gap, Norway currently maintains a strong foothold in the top 15. Cyprus, too, has shown its mettle over the past two seasons, with clubs like Pafos, AEK Larnaca, and Omonia Nicosia threatening to challenge Norway next year.
Considering UEFA’s access criteria may not shift during the 2024-27 cycle, the coming months will be critical for Norwegian football’s standing in Europe.
